Coalition Government Collapse
Germany's traffic light coalition government has fallen after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag, triggering snap elections set for February 23, 2025.
The collapse marks the end of an increasingly troubled three-party alliance between the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP) that struggled with economic challenges and internal divisions.
The Confidence Vote
The December confidence vote revealed deep fractures:
Vote Breakdown
| Party | Vote |
|---|---|
| SPD | For (with exceptions) |
| Greens | For |
| FDP | Against (coalition already dissolved) |
| CDU/CSU | Against |
| AfD | Against |
What Led to the Collapse
Multiple factors contributed to the government's fall:
Economic Pressures
- Energy crisis fallout from Ukraine war
- Industrial decline in key sectors
- Rising unemployment concerns
- Immigration costs straining budgets
Political Tensions
- FDP departure in November 2024
- Budget disagreements
- Defense spending disputes
- Climate policy conflicts
Election Campaign Begins
The February 2025 election campaign is already underway:
Key Contenders
| Candidate | Party | Polling |
|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz | CDU/CSU | ~30-33% |
| Olaf Scholz | SPD | ~15-18% |
| Robert Habeck | Greens | ~12-14% |
| Alice Weidel | AfD | ~18-22% |
Campaign Issues
- Economic recovery
- Immigration policy
- Climate transformation
- Defense and NATO
- Ukraine support
CDU's Return to Power?
Polls suggest CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next Chancellor:
"Germany needs a fresh start. The traffic light coalition has failed on the economy, on migration, and on providing stable governance."
CDU Platform
- Business-friendly reforms
- Stricter immigration policy
- Continued Ukraine support
- Nuclear power reconsideration
- Budget discipline
SPD's Defense
Chancellor Scholz is fighting to remain in power:
SPD Arguments
- Stable leadership in crisis times
- Minimum wage increases
- Pension security
- Climate investments
- Ukraine solidarity
AfD's Rise
The far-right Alternative for Germany party is polling at historic highs:
AfD Position
| Issue | Stance |
|---|---|
| Immigration | Deportation focus |
| Ukraine | End military support |
| EU | Skeptical |
| NATO | Critical |
| Climate | Against green transition |
European Implications
Germany's political instability affects the EU:
Regional Impact
- EU leadership vacuum during transition
- Ukraine support questions
- France-Germany axis uncertainty
- Defense coordination challenges
- Climate policy momentum concerns
What's Next
Election Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | Confidence vote failed |
| January 2025 | Official campaign period |
| February 23, 2025 | Election day |
| March-April 2025 | Coalition negotiations |
Coalition Scenarios
- CDU/CSU + SPD: Grand coalition redux
- CDU/CSU + Greens: Jamaica coalition
- CDU/CSU alone: If polls surge
- No clear majority: Extended negotiations
Economic Stakes
The uncertainty comes at a challenging time for Europe's largest economy:
Key Metrics
| Indicator | Current Status |
|---|---|
| GDP Growth | Near zero |
| Inflation | Elevated |
| Unemployment | Rising |
| Industrial Output | Declining |
Germany's voters will decide in February whether to continue the center-left experiment or return to conservative leadership.
