Resistance Advances
Myanmar's civil war has seen resistance forces gaining significant ground against the military junta in late 2024, with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces (PDF) coordinating successful offensives across multiple fronts.
Military Situation
Current battlefield:
Territory Control
| Region | Status |
|---|---|
| Border areas | Resistance-held |
| Central Myanmar | Contested |
| Major cities | Junta controlled |
| Rural areas | Mixed |
Key Offensives
Recent operations:
Major Campaigns
| Operation | Region |
|---|---|
| Operation 1027 | Northern Shan State |
| Rakhine operations | Arakan Army gains |
| Karen State | KNU advances |
| Kayah State | Resistance control |
Ethnic Armed Organizations
Key forces:
Major EAOs
| Organization | Activity |
|---|---|
| Arakan Army | Rakhine control |
| MNDAA | Northern gains |
| TNLA | Shan State |
| KNU | Karen State |
| KNPP | Kayah State |
People's Defense Forces
PDF development:
Evolution
| Aspect | Status |
|---|---|
| Numbers | Growing |
| Capability | Improving |
| Coordination | Better |
| Equipment | Captured, supplied |
Junta Struggles
Military challenges:
SAC Problems
| Issue | Severity |
|---|---|
| Morale | Low |
| Recruitment | Difficult |
| Territory | Shrinking |
| Airpower | Overreliance |
National Unity Government
NUG role:
Parallel Government
| Function | Status |
|---|---|
| International representation | Some |
| Coordination | Improving |
| Legitimacy | Among resistance |
| Recognition | Limited foreign |
Humanitarian Crisis
Civilian impact:
Displacement
| Metric | Numbers |
|---|---|
| IDPs | 3+ million |
| Refugees | Hundreds of thousands |
| Aid access | Extremely limited |
| Food insecurity | Severe |
International Response
External engagement:
Positions
| Actor | Approach |
|---|---|
| ASEAN | Five-Point Consensus (failed) |
| China | Instrumental engagement |
| India | Border security focus |
| Thailand | Humanitarian concern |
| West | Sanctions, limited action |
China's Role
Beijing's calculations:
Interests
- Border stability
- Trade routes
- Influence maintenance
- Ethnic Chinese protection
- Drug trafficking concerns
War Crimes
Documentation efforts:
Junta Actions
| Violation | Documented |
|---|---|
| Airstrikes on civilians | Extensive |
| Village burning | Hundreds |
| Arbitrary detention | Thousands |
| Torture | Widespread |
Looking Ahead
Conflict trajectory:
Scenarios
- Continued resistance gains
- Junta collapse risk
- Negotiated settlement (distant)
- Fragmentation
- Protracted conflict
Myanmar's civil war enters a new phase with the military junta facing its most serious challenges since the 2021 coup.
