Increased Pressure
China has increased military pressure around Taiwan with expanded naval exercises and air incursions, as the island prepares for potential challenges during the US political transition and questions about the incoming Trump administration's Taiwan policy.
Military Activity
PLA operations:
Recent Actions
| Activity | Scale |
|---|---|
| Air incursions | Record numbers |
| Naval operations | Expanded |
| Exercises | More frequent |
| Coast Guard | Active |
ADIZ Incursions
Air defense zone violations:
Pattern
| Factor | Trend |
|---|---|
| Fighter jets | Increasing |
| Bombers | Regular |
| Drones | Growing |
| Night operations | More |
Taiwan's Response
ROC military actions:
Defensive Measures
| Action | Status |
|---|---|
| Scrambles | Continuous |
| Monitoring | 24/7 |
| Readiness | Elevated |
| Exercises | Own training |
President Lai Ching-te
Taiwan's new leader:
Lai Administration
| Factor | Position |
|---|---|
| Inauguration | May 2024 |
| Cross-strait stance | Status quo |
| DPP | Independence-leaning party |
| Beijing view | "Separatist" |
US-Taiwan Relations
Alliance dynamics:
Current Status
| Element | Status |
|---|---|
| Arms sales | Continuing |
| Unofficial relations | Strong |
| Taiwan Policy Act | Congressional support |
| Biden approach | Maintained |
Trump Factor
Incoming administration questions:
Uncertainties
| Issue | Concern |
|---|---|
| Personal comments | Transactional |
| Taiwan value | Questioned |
| Defense industry | Interest |
| China deal | Unknown |
Economic Dimension
Semiconductor importance:
Taiwan's Position
| Factor | Significance |
|---|---|
| TSMC | Global leader |
| Chip production | Critical |
| US interest | Protection |
| China interest | Acquisition |
Regional Allies
Japan and others:
Partner Positions
| Country | Stance |
|---|---|
| Japan | Taiwan contingency planning |
| Philippines | Alliance strengthened |
| Australia | Regional concern |
| South Korea | Cautious |
Military Balance
Cross-strait comparison:
Force Comparison
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| PLA quantitative | Superior |
| Taiwan defense | Credible |
| US intervention | Decisive if comes |
| Deterrence | Holding |
Invasion Scenarios
Intelligence assessments:
Evaluations
| Scenario | Timeline |
|---|---|
| Imminent invasion | Not likely |
| Pressure campaign | Current |
| Gray zone | Ongoing |
| Full blockade | Escalation risk |
"Joint Sword" Exercises
Major military drills:
Recent Operations
- Large-scale exercises
- Simulated blockade
- Multi-domain operations
- Message sending
- Capability demonstration
Looking Ahead
2025 trajectory:
Key Factors
- Trump policy formation
- Xi Jinping calculations
- Taiwan resilience
- Regional response
- Economic interests
The Taiwan Strait remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints as great power competition intensifies in the Indo-Pacific.
